ByMuR - Papers

PUBLICATIONS

Faenza L, Pierdominici S, Camassi R, Michelini A, Ercolani E, Lauciani V (2013), The ShakeMap Atlas for the City of Naples, Italy, Seismological Research Letters 84(6):963-972, DOI: 10.1785/0220130048
Garcia-Aristizabal A, Selva J, Fujita E (2013), Integration of stochastic models for longterm eruption forecasting into a Bayesian event tree scheme: a basis method to estimate the probability of volcanic unrest , Bull. Volcanol. 75:689, DOI: 10.1007/s00445-013-0689-2
Grezio A, Tonini R, Sandri L, Pierdominici S, Selva J (2015), A Methodology for a Comprehensive Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Multiple Sources and Short-Term Interactions, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 3(1), 23-51, DOI: 10.3390/jmse3010023
Marzocchi W, Selva J, Costa A, Sandri L, Tonini R, Macedonio G (2015), Tephra fall hazard fir the Neapolitan area, in Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk (Loughlin S, Sparks S, Brown S, Jerkins S, Vye-Brown C, Eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Marzocchi W, Taroni M, Selva J, Accounting for Epistemic Uncertainty in PSHA: Logic Tree and Ensemble Modeling, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105 (4), doi: 10.1785/0120140131.
Sandri L, Thouret JCm Constantinescy R, Biass S, Tonini R (2014), Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru). Bull. Volcanol. 76:771, DOI: 10.1007/s00445-013-0771-9
Sandri L, Costa A, Selva J, Tonini R, Macedonio G, Folch A, Sulpizio R (2016), Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes , Scientific Reports 6, Article number: 24271, doi:10.1038/srep24271
Selva J, Marzocchi W, Papale P, Sandri L (2012), Operational eruption forecasting at high-risk volcanoes: the case of Campi Flegrei, Naples, J. Applied Volcanology, 1:5, DOI:10.1186/2191-5040-1-5
Selva J, Marzocchi W, Papale P, Sandri L (2012), Operational eruption forecasting at high-risk volcanoes: the case of Campi Flegrei, Naples, J. Applied Volcanology, 1:5, DOI:10.1186/2191-5040-1-5
Selva J, Agryroudis S, Pitilakis K (2013), Impact on loss/risk assessments of inter-model variability in vulnerability analysis, Natural Hazards, 67(2): 723-746, DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0616-z
Selva J (2013), Long-term multi-risk assessment: statistical treatment of interaction among risks, Natural Hazards,67(2): 701-722, DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0599-9
Selva J, Sandri L (2013), Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment: Combining Cornell-like approaches and data at sites through Bayesian inference, Bull Seism Soc Am 103(3):1709-1722, DOI: 10.1785/0120120091
Selva J, Sandri L, Marzocchi W, Papale P (2013), Stima della probabilità di eruzioni, Ambiente Rischio Comunicazione, 5 (CHE SUCCEDE AI CAMPI FLEGREI?), ISSN 2240-1520; analisi della probabilità di eruzione ai Campi Flegrei.
Selva J, Costa A, Sandri L, Marzocchi W (2014), Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: a case study for tephra fallout , J. Geophys. Res., 119(12): 8805-5526, DOI:10.1002/2014JB011252
Selva J, Tonini R, Molinari I, Tiberti MM, Romano F, Grezio A, Melini D, Piatanesi A, Basili R, Lorito S (2016), Quantification of source uncertainties in Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA) , Geophys. J. Int., 205: 1780-1803, DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggw107
Tierz P, Sandri L, Costa A, Sulpizio R, Zaccarelli L, Di Vito MA, Marzocchi (2017), Uncertainty Assessment of Pyroclastic Density Currents at Mount Vesuvius (Italy) Simulated Through the Energy Cone Model" in "Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support", Geophysical Monograph 223, First Edition (Eds: Karin Riley, Peter Webley, and Matthew Thompson), 2017 American Geophysical Union. Published 2017 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Tierz P, Sandri L, Costa A, Zaccarelli L, Di Vito MA, Sulpizio R, Marzocchi (2016) Suitability of energy cone for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment: validation tests at Somma-Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei (Italy), Bull Volcanol, 78-92, doi:10.1007/s00445-016-1073-9
Tonini R, Sandri L, Costa A, Selva J (2015), Brief Communication: The effect of submerged vents on probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 409-415, 2015, DOI:10.5194/nhess-15-409-2015
Tonini R, Sandri L, Thompson MA (2015), PyBetVH: a Python tool for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment and for generation of Bayesian hazard curves and maps, Comput. Geosci., 79, 38-46, doi: 10.1016/j.cageo.2015.02.017.

PAPERS SUBMITTED/IN PREP

Grezio A, Faenza L, Pondrelli S, Sandri L, Selva J, Tonini R, A comprehensive Bayesian Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for the city of Naples, in prep.
Selva J, Garcia-Aristizabal A, Di Ruocco A, Marzocchi W, Ensemble Probabilistic Risk Assessment (ePRA) to quantify epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis
Zaccarelli L, Sandri L, de Vita S, Di Vito MA, Sansivero F, Long-term eruption forecasting at Ischia volcano, submitted.

CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS

(Invited) Costa A, Folch A, Macedonio G, Sandri L, Selva J (2013), New methods of probabilistichazard assessment of tephra dispersal: application to the Neapolitan area , IAVCEI2013, Forecasting Volcanic Activity, 20-24/07/2013, Kagoshima, Japan
Folch A, Sandri L, Costa A. Selva J, Tonini R, Macedonio G (2014), Hazard assessment of tephra dispersal exploring the natural variability of eruption sizes. The case of the Neapolitan area, Cities on Volcanoes 8 - Yogyakarta - September 9-13 2014
Garcia-Aristizabal A, Selva J, Di Ruocco A, Sandri L, Marzocchi W, Gasparini P (2013), Seismic and volcanic risk assessment in a multi-risk framework considering interactions, IAVCEI 2013, Forecasting Volcanic Activity, 20-24/07/2013, Kagoshima, Japan
Grezio A, Selva J, Sandri L (2011), A Comprehensive Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assess-ment: Multiple Sources and Short-Term Interactions, AGU fall meeting, 5-8/12/2011San Francisco (USA)
Grezio A, Tonini R, Selva J, Sandri L, Pierdominici S, Faenza L, Zaccarelli L (2012), A comprehensive Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for the city of Naples (Italy),AGU fall meeting, 3-7/12/2012 San Francisco (USA)
(invited) Palma JL, Sandri L (2012) Bayesian Event Tree for Volcanic Hazards - BET_VH theory, https://vhub.org/resources/1897.
(lecture) Sandri L (2011), BET codes for Volcanic Hazard Assessment and Eruption Forecasting, University of Buffalo, May 2011.
Sandri L, Thouret JC, Constantinescu R, Biass S, Tonini R (2012) Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru), Cities on Volcanoes 7, Colima, Messico, Novembre 2012
Sandri L, Zaccarelli L, de Vita S, Di Vito MA, Sansivero F (2012) Long-term eruption forecasting at Ischia volcano, IAVCEI 2013, Forecasting Volcanic Activity, 20-24/07/2013, Kagoshima, Japan.
(lecture) Sandri L, Defining the rules for eruption forecasting: an example at Stromboli, Stromboli, 18-23 May 2013
(invited) Sandri L, Tonini R (2013) Introduction on BET_VH tool, V-Hub Workshop: Introduction to the VHub.org cyberinfrastructure and hands-on sessions on many of the on-line tools already available to its members, 25th July 2013, Kagoshima, Japan in the frame of IAVCEI 2013.
(invited) Sandri L, Selva J, Tonini R (2013) BET codes for Eruption Forecasting and Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA), Workshop on Operational Techniques in Volcanic Hazard Assessment, 24-25 April 2014, Vienna, Austria, in the frame of EGU 2014.
(lecture) Sandri L, BET codes for Eruption Forecasting and Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA), Vienna, May 2014.
Selva J (2012), ByMuR model: interaction among risks and uncertainty treatment in long-term multi-hazard/risk assessments, AGU fall meeting, 3-7/12/2012 San Francisco(USA)
Selva J (2013), ByMuR model: interaction among risks and uncertainty treatment in long-term multi-hazard/risk assessments, EGU General Assembly, 07-12/04/2013 Vienna(Austria)
(key lecture) Selva J, Sandri L (2013), Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment: Combining Cornell-Like Approaches and Data at Sites through Bayesian Inference, Geoitalia 2013, 16-18/09/2013, Pisa (Italy)
Selva J, Garcia-Aristizabal A, Di Ruocco A, Sandri L, Marzocchi W, Gasparini P (2013), BET_VR: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic risk assessment, IAVCEI 2013, Forecasting Volcanic Activity, 20-24/07/2013, Kagoshima, Japan
(solicited) Selva J, Sandri L (2013), Modello ByMuR: confronto ed interazione tra pericolosità e rischiosismico e vulcanico per la citta' di Napoli, AIQUA 2013, 19-21/06/2013, Napoli (Italy)
Selva J, Sandri L, Costa A, Tonini R, Folch A, Macedonio G (2014), Exploring the full natural variability of eruption sizes within probabilistic hazard assessment of tephra dispersal, EGU General Assembly 2014, Vol. 16, EGU2014-7612, Vienna 27/04-02/05/2014
(lecture) Selva J (2014), Quantificazione delle incertezze nelle stime probabilistiche dei rischi naturali: un'applicazione ai vulcani napoletani, University of Perugia, Faculty of Science, 21/06/2014, Perugia, Italy
(lecture) Selva J (2015), Quantificazione delle incertezze nelle stime probabilistiche dei rischi naturali, University of Perugia, Faculty of Science, 24/01/2015, Perugia, Italy
(keynote lecture) Selva J (2015), Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment: Combining Cornell-Like Approaches and Data at Sites through Bayesian Inference, CSNI Workshop on Testing PSHA Results and Benefit of Bayesian Techniques for Seismic Hazard Assessment, Hosted by EUCENTRE, Pavia, Italy, 4-6 February 2015
Taroni M, Marzocchi W, Selva J (2014), Accounting for Epistemic Uncertainty in PSHA: Logic Tree and Ensemble Model, EGU General Assembly 2014, Vol. 16, EGU2014-7769, Vienna 27/04-02/05/2014
Tierz P, Sandri L, Costa A, Zaccarelli L, Sulpizio R, Selva J, Di Vito MA, Marzocchi W (2014), Testing the suitability of Energy Cone for Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment: a case study at Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei (Italy), Cities on Volcanoes 8 - Yogyakarta- September 9-13 2014
Tonini R, Selva J (2013), BYMUR software: a free and open source tool for quantifying and visualizing multi-risk analyses, EGU General Assembly 2013, Vienna, 07-12/04/2013
Tonini R, Sandri L, Selva J, Marzocchi W (2013), An operational approach to generate and vi-sualize Bayesian probabilistic volcanic hazard curves by means of BET_VH tool, IAVCEI 2013, Forecasting Volcanic Activity, 20-24/07/2013, Kagoshima, Japan
Tonini R, Sandri L, Costa A, Selva J (2014), The effect of the sea on hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei: a preliminary approach through the use of pyPHaz, an open tool to analyze and visualize probabilistic hazards, EGU General Assembly 2014, Vol. 16, EGU2014-10499, Vienna 27/04-02/05/2014
Tonini R, Selva J, Costa A, Sandri L (2014), The pyPHaz software, an interactive tool to analyze and visualize results from probabilistic hazard assessments, EGU General Assembly 2014, Vol. 16, EGU2014-10663, Vienna 27/04-02/05/2014