Working Group #3 ( RU#2): Bayesian Volcanic Hazard
- Goals: Long-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment in the city of Naples for tephra fall and pyroclastic flow invasion from the Vesuvius, Ischia and Campi Flegrei
- Responsible: Laura Sandri (INGV)
- Participants: Jacopo Selva, Warner Marzocchi
TASKS
- Local map of volcanic hazard (and its uncertainties) for tephra fall and invasion by pyroclastic density currents, evaluated both for each single volcano and in a comprehensive manner for Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ischia
- Unrest forecasting, Pyr. Flows and Tephra fall forecasting
ACTIVITY
In this working group we will make use of BET_VH tool for assessing the probability that different areas in the city of Naples will be loaded by tephra fall or invaded by pyroclastic flows from the volcanoes Ischia, Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei in the long-term. In particular, we will apply the BET_VH code to each volcano separately for the two phenomena, focussing on the probability of ash fall loading and pyroclastic flow invasion, taking into account the natural variability of the eruptive process (in terms of size and related eruptive parameters, vent location, wind parameters and so on). We will also define what can be considered unrest at Ischia (for the other two volcanoes, this has already been done, see Marzocchi et al, Bull Volcanol 2004; Bull Volcanol 2008; Selva et al COV6 meeting, 2010).
MEETINGS and PUBLICATIONS
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